After 30 years of real estate management and teaching the business to hundreds of agents, I now focus solely on helping my clients buy and sell homes. But now I also have time to share my experiences and knowledge with you, the readers of Lowell’s First Look, on a monthly basis. I invite your ongoing questions, whether you are planning on purchasing your very first home or your next home, or your last home. Just email me your questions at [email protected].
Statistically Speaking
Real estate is local. Our surrounding communities differ in many ways, including the supply and demand side of real estate. Now that we are nearing 90 days past COVID-19 restricted home showings, it’s time to compare where we are today, with 2019. This month we dive into the statistics that matter to you, as well as us, as Realtors.
The Market Demand
This chart compares our entire GRAR Multiple Listing Service, Kent County and Ionia County, with the defined area of the Lowell School District. The percentages are increases/decreases over same period last.
Year to Date Through July 2020
| Location | Average Sale Price | Units Sold | Current Pending Sales |
| Entire MLS – GRAR* | $209,935 +6.4% | 33,493 -3.4% | 34,406 -1.2% |
| Kent County | $239,912 +5.8% | 9,324 -3.6% | 9,550 -1.6% |
| Ionia County | $165,951 +7.7% | 585 +2.3% | 595 +3.1% |
| Lowell School District | $268,477 +9.0% | 304 -6.5% | 308 -4.6% |
*MLS is Multiple Listing Service. GRAR is the Greater Regional Alliance of Realtors. Coverage area includes all of Kent and Ionia Counties, northern Barry County (inclusive of Gun Lake) and southeastern Ottawa County.
The statistics certainly indicate a strong 60-day recovery after being sidelined for more than 60 days with COVID-19. Average sale prices continue to grow, due to demand and low inventory. Western Ionia County has become a hot spot, as housing is currently more affordable than eastern Kent County. The Lowell School District continues outperform, but lacks inventory for growth in units sold. It will be interesting to compare these numbers through the remainder of 2020.
The Market Inventory
Here are the same locations and percentage comparisons. “Months of Supply” refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace. Historically, six months of supply is associated with moderate price appreciation, and a lower level of months’ supply tends to push prices up more rapidly. As you can see, the low supply in 2019 has become a deeper problem, as buyers have fewer choices in the higher demand areas.
Year to Date Through July 2020
| Location | Homes Currently for Sale | Months of Supply |
| Entire MLS – GRAR* | 7,677 -11.8% | 2.6 -13.3% |
| Kent County | 1,323 -9.1% | 1.6 -11.1% |
| Ionia County | 121 -10.4% | 2.5 -7.4% |
| Lowell School District | 50 -25.5% | 1.9 -24.0% |
*MLS is Multiple Listing Service. GRAR is the Greater Regional Alliance of Realtors. Coverage area includes all of Kent and Ionia Counties, northern Barry County (inclusive of Gun Lake) and southeastern Ottawa County.
School District Activity
The following chart shows the school districts that surround the Lowell School District. First, the demand. Again, the percentages are increases/decreases over same period last year.
Year to Date Through July 2020
| Location | Ave. Sale Price | Units Sold | Current Pending Sales | Showings Per Listing |
| Lowell Schools | $268,477 +9.0% | 304 -6.5% | 308 -4.6% | 4.0 +11.1% |
| Forest Hills | $406,920 +2.5% | 769 -7.3% | 783 -8.3% | 4.1 -6.8% |
| Rockford | $316,124 +5.9% | 777 -0.6% | 802 +0.1% | 3.4 -21.4% |
| Caledonia | $324,134 +7.9% | 445 +3.5% | 454 +8.4% | 3.0 0.0% |
| Saranac | $216,557 +10.7% | 73 +5.8% | 71 +1.4% | 3.8 +35.7% |
| Belding | $168,360 +2.7% | 186 +3.3% | 181 -5.2% | 3.8 +15.2% |
| Lakewood | $164,728 +4.2% | 127 +5.8% | 136 +7.1% | 3.0 +36.4% |
There is certainly a lot to absorb from this chart. Obviously, average sale prices have increased within each school district, with the largest increases in Lowell, Saranac and Caledonia. The Units Sold increases in Saranac, Belding and Lakewood seem to be related to affordability, based on average sale price. The increase in Caledonia may be relatable to an increase in popularity and demand for that location. Overall, all these school districts are experiencing plenty of demand, but dealing with a low supply of available homes for sale, reduces Units Sold.
Let’s review the homes for sale/supply side for the same school districts.
Year to Date Through July 2020
| Location | Homes Currently for Sale | Months of Supply |
| Lowell Schools | 50 -25.5% | 1.9 -24.0% |
| Forest Hills | 172 -2.4% | 2.5 -4.2% |
| Rockford | 169 -14.2% | 2.5 -21.9% |
| Caledonia | 98 -9.3% | 2.7 -6.9% |
| Saranac | 11 -15.4% | 1.9 -13.6% |
| Belding | 35 -10.3% | 2.3 -8.0% |
| Lakewood | 27 -3.6% | 2.5 -3.8% |
A balanced market typically equates to 6 months of supply; while a buyer’s market equates to 7 months of supply and above; and a seller’s market equates to 6 months of supply and under. As you can see, we are deeply into a seller’s market. However, those that continue to buy are happy they purchased a home, as their investment values continue to rise. Homes in Lowell and Saranac school districts have increased about 10% in value from last year and have increased much more over the last few years. Popular school districts tend to have more demand and less homeowners that want to sell and move.
Price Per Square Foot
Here is another interesting statistic that relates to demand. This is based on existing home sales and is not an indication of new construction costs. First the overall MLS and Kent & Ionia County.
Year to Date Through July 2020
| Location | Sold Price Per Square Foot |
| Entire MLS – GRAR* | $116 |
| Kent County | $127 |
| Ionia County | $95 |
MLS is Multiple Listing Service. GRAR is the Greater Regional Alliance of Realtors. Coverage area includes all of Kent and Ionia Counties, northern Barry County (inclusive of Gun Lake) and southeastern Ottawa County.
Here is the breakdown for our surrounding school districts.
| Location | Sold Price Per Square Foot |
| Lowell Schools | $130 |
| Forest Hills | $140 |
| Rockford | $136 |
| Caledonia | $134 |
| Saranac | $113 |
| Belding | $98 |
| Lakewood | $95 |
The 2020 Journey Continues
COVID-19 continues to control the way we do business but is not inhibiting the flow of our business. Buyers keep entering the marketplace and keep purchasing homes. West Michigan has a very strong market and the eastern Kent County and western Ionia County markets are extremely strong. The low inventory continues to make it a great time to sell a home. If this market continues, it’s also a great time to buy a home, as interest rates continue to spawn affordability and rising prices continue to solidify a home purchase investment.
Rick Seese works with buyers and sellers of residential, commercial and industrial real estate. He is an Associate Broker with Greenridge Realty, Inc. and has been licensed full-time for 43 years. If you’re interested in reaching out to Rick for more information, or have a question for the monthly article, you can contact him via email ([email protected]), visit his website at www.rickseese.com or Facebook page at (www.facebook.com/Rick Seese), or call/text him at 616-437-2576.
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